The outlook for global cereal supply in the 2013/14 marketing season remains generally favourable despite downward adjustments to forecasts for world cereal production and closing stocks, according to the latest issue of FAO's quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report.
Despite this downward adjustment, world cereal production would still surpass the 2012 level by nearly 8 percent.
At 2 489 million tonnes, FAO's current forecast for world cereal production in 2013 is marginally lower (by 3 million tonnes) than reported in September, mainly reflecting poorer prospects for the South America wheat crop, following adverse weather.
The expected 8 percent increase in world cereal production this year over 2012 is mainly the result of an 11 percent anticipated expansion in coarse grains output to about 1 288 million tonnes.
The United States, the world's largest maize producer, would account for the bulk of the increase, as it is expected to harvest a record maize crop of 348 million tonnes, 27 percent higher than the previous year's drought-reduced level.
The FAO forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2014 has been revised downward by almost 2 percent since September, to 559 million tonnes, still 12 percent (62 million tonnes) above their opening level and the highest level since 2001/02.
International trade in cereals in 2013/14 is forecast to reach 312.4 million tonnes, 1.6 percent (4.8 million tonnes) higher than in 2012/13 and slightly above the level expected in September. Trade in 2013/14 is expected to benefit from larger export availabilities of coarse grains in particular.
Thursday October 3, 2013/ FAO.