FAO - Unless production of major food crops increases significantly in 2011

International prices of most agricultural commodities have increased in recent months, some sharply. The FAO Food Price index has gained 34 points since the previous Food Outlook report in June, averaging 197 points in October, only 16 points short from its peak in June 2008. The upward movements of prices were connected with several factors, the most important of which were a worsening of the outlook for crops in key producing countries, which is likely to require large draw downs of stocks and result in tighter global supply and demand balances in 2010/11.
Thursday 18 November 2010 (7 years 3 months 3 days ago)
International prices of most agricultural commodities have increased in recent months, some sharply. The FAO Food Price index has gained 34 points since the previous Food Outlook report in June, averaging 197 points in October, only 16 points short from its peak in June 2008. The upward movements of prices were connected with several factors, the most important of which were a worsening of the outlook for crops in key producing countries, which is likely to require large draw downs of stocks and result in tighter global supply and demand balances in 2010/11.

Contrary to earlier predictions, world cereal production is now forecast to contract by two percent rather than to expand by 1.2 percent as anticipated in June. Unexpected supply shortfalls due to unfavourable weather events were responsible for this change in direction, according to the report.

Global cereal stocks are forecast to decline sharply and Food Outlook makes a strong call for production to be stepped up to replenish inventories. World cereals stocks are anticipated to shrink by seven percent according to FAO, with barley plunging 35 percent, maize 12 percent and wheat 10 percent.


FAO Outlook. November 2010.

Unexpected production shortfalls driven by weather events negatively influenced the outlook for global cereal supply in the early months of the 2010/11 marketing season from July to October. Rarely have markets exhibited this level of uncertainty and sudden turns in such a brief period of time. World cereal production this year, which is currently put at 2 216 million tonnes, is 2 percent below the previous year’s level and, although it represents the third largest crop on record, it is 63 million tonnes less than the forecast reported in the June 2010 Food Outlook. Most of the downward revision, involving wheat and coarse grains, following cuts in production in major grain producing countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and disappointing yields in the EU, Canada and the United States.

As production numbers were trimmed, policy responses in the form of export restrictions by some countries also contributed to anxiety in world markets. International prices surged rapidly, renewing worries over the tightening cereal supply and demand balance. In recent weeks, developments in other food markets and the slide in the US Dollar have further underpinned cereal prices and volatility. Against this background, the size of next year’s
harvest becomes increasingly critical. For stocks to be replenished and prices to return to more normal levels, large production expansions are needed in 2011, especially for wheat and major coarse grains.

http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/al969e/al969e00.pdf

Swine news

Article Comments

This area is not intended to be a place to consult authors about their articles, but rather a place for open discussion among pig333.com users.

Access restricted to 333 users. In order to post a comment you must be logged in.

Not a registered user of 333?sign upand access swine prices, the search engine, ...
It is fast and free
Are you registered in 333?LOGINIf you've forgotten your password we'll send it to you here

tags

Swine News

Swine industry news in your email

You are not subscribed to this list

16-Feb-201809-Feb-201802-Feb-201826-Jan-2018

Log in and sign up on the list

Not a registered user of 333?sign upand access swine prices, the search engine, ...
It is fast and free
Are you registered in 333?LOGINIf you've forgotten your password we'll send it to you here