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According to forecasts published by Copa and Cogeca, a modest improvement for EU cereals is expected in 2025, a mixed but relatively stable year for oilseeds, and a positive outcome for protein crops despite a decline in sown area. However, the overall situation remains weather-dependent, and the coming weeks will be decisive.
EU-27 cereal production is forecast to reach 275.2 million tonnes in 2025, marking a 6.9% increase compared to 2024. This recovery is driven by a 2.2% rise in sown area and a 4.6% improvement in yields. Common wheat production is expected to rise by 9.6%, barley by 9.2%, and maize by 4.7%, all supported by better yield conditions. Durum wheat, however, faces a sharp decline of 32% due to significantly lower yields (-33.7%).
Among other cereals, triticale (+7.4%), oats (+6.4%), and rye (+2.8%) are also expected to record production increases. In contrast, sorghum faces a significant decline (-19.9%) due to a sharp reduction in sown area (-31.1%). Geographically, the recovery remains uneven across Member States: while some regions show clear signs of improvement, localised challenges such as summer heatwaves continue to pose concerns.
Although these figures are close to the adjusted average of the last five years (276.6 Mt), this average already reflects a period of weak harvests. Therefore, 2025 should be interpreted as a stabilization, not a full recovery.
For oilseeds, the 2025 outlook is relatively stable, with total EU-27 production expected to reach 31.1 million tonnes, representing a slight decline of 0.8% compared to 2024. The overall oilseed area is up marginally by 0.5%, while yields are forecast to remain fairly steady, declining by 1.3%. A small increase in rapeseed production (+0.1%) is offset by a decrease in sunflower production (-4.5%), mainly due to lower yields. In contrast, soya production is projected to grow by 5.9%, driven by both expanded area and improved yields.
Protein crops offer the most positive figures: with 3% less area, an 8% increase in production is expected, thanks to higher yields in peas (+21%) and beans (+11%). Lupin production, however, plummets (-66%).
The evolution of the weather in the coming weeks will be key to confirming these forecasts.
July 11, 2025/ Copa-Cogeca/ European Union.
https://copa-cogeca.eu
