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Following a strong performance in 2025, the Brazilian swine industry maintains optimistic projections for 2026. Increased foreign demand, coupled with moderate production growth and stable prices, should ensure attractive margins throughout the season. Calculations by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) indicate that approximately 1.44 million tons of pork will be exported this year, representing an increase of 6.3% over 2025.
These figures could even improve Brazil's position in the ranking of the world's largest pork exporters: since 2023, the country has ranked third, according to USDA data. According to researchers at Cepea, new markets are expected to open up and consolidate, in addition to expanding total export value. The Philippines should remain Brazil's main trading partner, acquiring 7% more of the country's pork in 2026. As for China, the second leading destination, the total shipped should continue to decline, given the reduction in demand from the country in recent years: between 2021 and partial data for 2025, the total shipped to the country fell by more than 70%. In the Americas, Mexico is expected to continue increasing its demand for Brazilian pork.
In the domestic market, prices could remain high next year. At the same time, Cepea estimates indicate that the trend of lower volatility will continue: in 2025, prices remained virtually stable in some markets for four or even six consecutive weeks. The expectation of firm prices is supported by continued strong demand. According to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), per capita consumption of pork is projected to be 19.5 kilograms in 2026, representing a 2.5% increase over the previous year.
Cepea estimates that pork production will increase by 4%, reaching 5.88 million tons. As in 2025, Cepea forecasts a good year for producers, favored by stable pig prices.
December 30, 2025/ Cepea/ Brazil.
https://www.cepea.org.br
