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Brazil and China are in the early stages of negotiations to create an exclusive soy supply chain, aimed at meeting the demanding sustainability and quality standards set by the Chinese government. The proposal, called “Soja China”, is inspired by the successful “Boi China” model, which opened doors for Brazilian beef in the Asian market.
Soybeans produced under this new model will have to meet specific criteria, such as full traceability, the absence of pesticides banned in China, and respect for deforestation limits. The requirements are similar to those of the European Union (EUDR), but with less stringent regulations. The aim is to ensure that the product is environmentally friendly and in line with low-carbon targets, such as those set out in the ABC+ Plan.
In 2024, Brazil accounted for 71% of China's soybean imports. With the creation of this segmented chain, this share is expected to increase further, putting pressure on other exporters such as the United States. In 2024 alone, the US exported more than 25 million tons of soybeans to China, worth more than US$12 billion, a volume that could be heavily impacted.
Since 2009, the US has been losing market share, while Brazil has consolidated its position as the main supplier. The trend is for this scenario to intensify with the implementation of “Soja China”, especially in the face of recent trade tensions and higher tariffs imposed on the American product.
In addition to the commercial impact, the initiative could represent a step forward for Brazil's environmental reputation. It is hoped that China will invest in the recovery of degraded areas and encourage sustainable agricultural practices, while at the same time consolidating its strategic presence in Brazilian agribusiness, without violating national laws that limit the acquisition of land by foreigners.
Although producers who don't adhere to the new criteria may face a drop in demand, the prospect is that the total volume of Brazilian soybean exports will continue to grow. The move, if confirmed, could redefine the global agricultural trade scenario in the coming years and require a strategic reorganization of major exporters such as the United States.
June 23, 2025/ USDA/ United States.
