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After the harsh price drop in the beginning of the summer, supply and demand for fattening pigs found their balance. Marketing moved along quietly but without bottlenecks. The official producer price held stable at €1.95, setting the tone for a market that trended sideways. Slaughter weights edged up with the summer weather, but this had little impact on the overall equilibrium. In short, prices stayed firm and while the industry waited for stronger signals from the meat trade, the situation was manageable.
Piglet trading painted a similar picture. The available lots met demand that was neither excessive nor weak. Prices stayed unchanged at €61.50 for the 25-kilo group, signaling calmness at the base of the chain. Growth rates in the barns dipped briefly during the hot spells, but the market absorbed this without difficulty. The month brought balance rather than excitement, but also no real concerns.
For sows, conditions remained subdued. Supply was limited, and neither processors nor exports gave the market much lift. The key farm-gate price stayed put at €1.05. Toward the end of the month, hopes grew that the end of the holiday period might bring more activity from processors, but August itself remained quiet.
On the structural side, southern Germany stayed in the spotlight. After antitrust authorities blocked the takeover of Vion's plants in Buchloe, Waldkraiburg, and Crailsheim by Tönnies Premium Food Group, Westfleisch publicly pushed for a quick solution and positioned itself as a potential buyer. The argument: prolonged legal wrangling and the possibility of a ministerial permit only stretched out uncertainty and put local slaughter capacity at risk. For farmers in the south, the issue is not abstract. It’s about planning security and preserving the regional slaughter network built over many years. The message is clear: only clarity will safeguard investment and trust in the chain.
Internationally, influences were mixed. Spain, often the pace-setter in summer, felt price pressure and weakened, while Italy was somewhat firmer. Overall, Europe remained in balance, though competitive tension was evident in export markets. For Germany, this meant the sideways trend was reinforced. There were no surplus volumes spilling over, nor any pull effects from abroad that might have disrupted the market.
Signals from overseas also shaped the backdrop. Brazil highlighted strong exports, broadening its customer base across Asia and Latin America. Analysts pointed to softer global prices in the third quarter, while also noting cheaper feed as a potential cushion. For Germany, these factors don’t dictate immediate direction, but they do set the framework in which export windows open or close and processors plan their mixes. That’s one reason why holding firm at €1.95 was seen as a sound course.
Looking ahead, several factors will steer the coming weeks:
- First: demand is expected to strengthen as schools and businesses return from summer breaks and kitchens move away from grills back to everyday meals. That supports standard cuts and stabilizes sales.
- Second: live supply will likely increase as cooler weather improves growth performance. The key question is whether the meat market will fully absorb this additional volume.
- Third: the structural issue in the south hangs heavy. A swift resolution over the Vion plants would restore confidence and stability.
- Fourth: external factors such as Europe’s export competitiveness and the dynamic situation in Asia remain wild cards.
All in all, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the controlled sideways movement, with a narrow range around €1.95. Modest price increases could appear if meat demand clearly picks up after the holiday season and processors ramp up capacity. At the same time, international competition and disciplined supply will prevent major leaps. For piglets, a steady demand from finishers points to an ongoing calmness around €61.50. For sows, much depends on whether industrial demand really gains momentum. Until then, €1.05 remains the benchmark. The key for producers will be to stay focused on planning and marketing. August showed that reliability itself is a strength. This trend may well carry into early autumn.
