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Each day, it is more and more difficult to write about the evolution of the commodities market. Very quickly, the writing becomes a dead letter only hours after being published. The geopolitical order that has structured the world since the end of World War II is slowly coming to an end. We are faced with the uncertainty of the new world order, coupled with the speed of algorithms. News stories are coming one after the other, and it is very difficult to keep perspective.
On Wednesday, April 2, we witnessed what the Trump Administration called “Liberation Day”: the imposition of generalized tariffs on the entire world based on an equation that embodied and sought to alleviate what they consider a competitive disadvantage. Since then, the biggest bearish driver we have seen in the market is the fear of a recession stemming from a macro trade war on several fronts. To give an example:
- April 2: The United States increases tariffs by 34%, bringing the total levy on Chinese products imported into the U.S. to 54%.
- April 4: China strikes back, announcing the imposition of a 34% tariff on products imported from the U.S.
- April 5: President Trump threatens to raise tariffs by 50%.
- April 7: The President announces a 104% tariff on Chinese imports. In response, the Chinese government imposes an 84% tariff on U.S. imports.
- April 9: Trump announces a 125% tariff on Chinese products and a 10% tariff reduction for all other countries, effective immediately.
- April 10: The tariff on Chinese goods is finalized at 145%, in addition to the 20% previously applied.
- April 11: China approves countermeasures, increasing tariffs on U.S. products to 125%.
To keep it brief—since we could spend all day jumping from one headline to another—as of today, it has been agreed to reduce tariffs during the 90-day negotiation period between the U.S. and China, lowering them to 30% for Chinese products imported into the U.S. and 10% for U.S. products imported into China.
Impossible to keep up with the pace of events!
The market is hyper-reactive, responding to every piece of news in one direction or another. Let’s try to focus. The main bearish factor since early April in cereals and other commodities has been the fear of a possible global slowdown resulting from a full-scale trade war. We've heard of interesting prices both in the short term and for all of 2026. For example, everyone remembers Trump’s first term, when it was possible to buy corn one or even two years ahead at around €170/MT. If we update the corn price from May 2, 2018, which was €173/MT, using Spanish inflation up to last month, it would correspond to €211.5/MT. Last week, corn for the whole of 2026 was offered at €215/MT—very close to the inflation-adjusted price. In summary, we've seen long-term buying opportunities at prices that are, at the very least, not expensive. These are prices that should be taken advantage of—especially now, as today we woke up to significantly rising prices due to the tariff truce (driven both by bullish market reactions and a strengthening dollar, which makes imports more expensive).
As a final comment, although wheat and barley production in Spain is currently expected to be very good, the recent widespread rains seem likely to delay the harvest more than anticipated. Harvest transitions are always complicated, and it's important to remember that, given the price gap with the new crops, we shouldn't expect many more ships to be dispatched from the ports until the arrival of new wheat harvests and Brazilian corn in August. Therefore, if the harvest is delayed and the tariff truce holds, this transition period could lead to price tensions, as producers need to cover their short-term needs. But this is as of today! We'll have to stay tuned for tomorrow’s headlines.
