A fateful January for the Spanish pig market

Firstly, we would like to thank our readers for their loyalty and persistence; the most-read article in 2025 on the Pig333 website was one of our commentaries. We will continue to fuel this interest in the new year. Thank you very much to everyone.

The presence of ASF in Spain (publicly confirmed on Friday, November 28) caused Spanish prices to plummet. Since January 8, a disastrous month, we have been living with a farm gate price of €1.00/kg live.

This price barely covers 73% of production costs. In other words, farmers are selling their pigs for 27% less than it costs to produce them. We cannot recall anything like this in the history of Spanish pig farming. Over a month of heavy, savage losses.

When ASF appeared, it seemed like when it rains, it pours; but worse: like very cold water had fallen on frozen ground: the entire surface had frozen, and the risk of falls and slips had skyrocketed.

Starting in autumn, the supply of live pigs in Spain increased significantly: the sector as a whole was returning to normal, recovering quickly due to the decrease in PRRS virulence. The abundant supply caused the price to fall to €1.30/kg live weight, which appeared to be the lowest price for 2025. In November, before the ASF outbreak, weekly slaughter numbers were very high. The unexpected appearance of ASF caused a rapid collapse in prices, which only stabilized on January 8 at €1.00/kg.

Last week, Mercolleida published the following table of equivalent live prices in various EU states (in euros/kilogram live weight):

At present, ASF is present in both Germany and Spain. Looking at these price levels, we can see that they are all well below the cost price (except for France, which is also below cost, but not by as much).

With the arrival of ASF, several destinations slammed the door on Spanish pork (Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan among the most significant). The immediate consequence has been that Spain has flooded the EU with cheap pork. Low pork prices have dragged down prices in some countries. Spain is home to a quarter of the EU's pigs; the problems that arise here inevitably spread to the rest of the Member States by virtue of free intra-Community trade. That's just the way it is.

When ASF was confirmed in Barcelona, there were hundreds of containers on board ships bound for third countries. Slaughterhouses had to repatriate these containers and then sell them off at a loss. Nine weeks later, this sudden chaos has almost been resolved, and its negative consequences have been fully assumed.

Under normal circumstances, Spanish prices tend to be higher than German prices. At present, the situation is reversed: Germany is significantly higher. The German market is not comfortable being more expensive than Spain. In an attempt to correct this state of affairs, a drop in prices in Germany cannot be ruled out... Or Spanish prices could rise, moving away from the low point where they are currently stuck. We lean towards the latter hypothesis.

We believe that the current price (1.00) should mark the minimum price for the year. Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that no new cases appear outside the exclusion zone or in any domestic pigs.

After the holidays, slaughter rates have been very high, and delays have cleared up. We are still seeing unprecedented average carcass weights, but these should soon begin to decline. Slaughterhouses are buying at low prices, and their margins are more than acceptable: as long as this continues, slaughter rates will remain high and the long-awaited first price increase will happen before long.

It is undeniable that we are going through a serious crisis. There will undoubtedly be consequences. It is highly likely that when all this is over, there will be a significant reduction in the Spanish pig inventory. Without wishing to be alarmist, we would say it is more than likely that this reduction will be in the double digits, although it is impossible to predict. We believe that there will also be a contraction in the rest of the EU, partly due to the spread of the Spanish crisis throughout the EU.

Livestock farmers must be extremely cautious and conservative: they must tread carefully and minimize damage as much as possible.

As negative as the situation may be, we must point out that more than 80% of our pork exports to third countries remain open (with the obvious limitation of regionalization, of course). We could be in a much worse situation.

The absence of Spanish pork in Japan has benefited and continues to benefit other suppliers: the Japanese market was suddenly left without 4,000 tons of pork per week that used to arrive there from Spain; other international suppliers have filled this gap. It is easy to guess that the average price of bellies imported by Japan has risen substantially since the shipments from Spain were interrupted.

We are living in the epicenter of a seemingly historic crisis. There is no choice but to weather it. Let's hope that the market regains its composure and rises (preferably as soon as possible). We believe that when the rises do come, they will be moderate. Surviving with a selling price slightly below the cost price may be acceptable, but living with a selling price 27% below the cost price is impossible. What cannot be, cannot be.

We will conclude today with two reflections from distinguished figures, both South African and both winners of the Nobel Peace Prize: Nelson Mandela: “It always seems impossible until it is done.”

Desmond Tutu: “Hope is the ability to see that there is light despite all the darkness.”

Guillem Burset