0
The spring 2024 edition of the short-term outlook report for EU agricultural markets published by the European Commission presents the latest trends and prospects for key agricultural markets. Since the last short-term outlook (autumn 2023) and despite some favorable but limited developments in input costs, prices, including energy, fertilizers, and animal feed are significantly above pre-COVID levels. Uncertainties for farmers also arise from unpredictable extreme weather events, geopolitical conflicts that pressure agricultural markets, and economic factors such as still-high interest rates and increased labor costs. Food prices remain still high, which, combined with low prospects for economic growth limit prospects for consumer demand recovery.
Arable crops
2024/25 EU cereal production is projected to increase to around 278.5 million tonnes (+3% year-on-year), primarily driven by better yields. The wet conditions affected cereal production in 2023/24 and made it sometimes difficult for farmers to access their fields to sow spring cereals. Overall, EU cereal imports in 2023/24 (July 2023-June 2024) could remain 17% higher than the 5-year average. However, improved logistics of the Black Sea corridor facilitate exports of Ukrainian grains to the global markets with less Ukrainian grains entering the EU.
The cultivation area and the yields for soya beans and sunflower seeds is increasing in 2023/24. Oilseeds and protein crops production is expected to increase in 2024/25, driven by an increase in soya bean, field peas and broad beans.
Meat products
The livestock sector is experiencing structural changes, driven mainly by a shift in consumer preferences from beef to poultry and by environmental constraints. EU per capita beef consumption in 2023 dropped to 9.7 kg (-4.7% year-on-year). The drop in consumption could continue by 2.8% in 2024. EU beef production could keep declining and this could sustain EU beef prices.
EU pigmeat production is experiencing a similar decline with -6.6% in 2023. The reduction could slow down at 0.4% in 2024.
Demand for poultry, as a cheaper source of protein, is still high. EU per capita consumption increased by 3% in 2023 and could grow by an additional 2% in 2024. Imports of poultry also continue to be high.
Updated balance sheets for the marketing year 2023/24 are included in the latest short-term outlook report and are also available in the agri-food data portal.
May 3, 2024/ European Commission/ European Union.
https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu
