According to a FAS-USDA report, the political and economic crisis in Ukraine resulted in abrupt currency devaluation and red meat demand drop. Once sizable, pork imports decreased significantly. Ukrainian swine producers were forced to export. The major export market in 2015 – Russia – introduced a Ukrainian pork import ban on January 1st 2016. This will sustain domestic consumption, but remarkably reduce exports in 2016. A substitution to lower-priced poultry products will continue. Pork import demand will continue only in the lowest market segments for further processing.
Pork is likely to return to the domestic market, sustaining local consumption. However non-Russia exports are likely to continue as pork prices decrease.
Pork production remains depressed by plummeting domestic demand. Pig procurement price calculated in USD remained well under the 2014 price. 2016 started with even lower prices without the traditional new year price peak. The situation in 2016 is expected to stabilize, but a minor production drop is expected. Consumers are re-orienting to more affordable poultry products, and the trend is supporting poultry production growth at the expense of red meat producers.
Live pig imports remain low in 2015 and are not expected to recover in 2016. Small and medium sized agricultural producers that specialized in pigs fattening stopped production due to low pork prices. Procuring foreign currency for imports remains complicated due to administrative barriers of Ukrainian financial regulators.
Wednesday March 9, 2016/ NAS-USDA/ United States.