According to OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, developing countries will account for 76% of the output growth, with poultry seeing the most rapid expansion. However, consumers in developing countries are expected to increase and diversify their meat consumption towards more expensive meat such as beef and sheepmeat. Import demand is expected to remain strong in Asia, with significant growth in the Philippines and Viet Nam; other main importers include China, Korea and Saudi Arabia. The combined export share of the two largest meat exporters, Brazil and the United States, is expected to increase to around 45%. Nominal meat prices are projected to gradually increase until 2027, while real prices are expected to trend downwards.
The past decade saw strong growth in the global per capita consumption of poultry (+16%), while the per capita consumption of beef and veal decreased by almost 5% between 2008 and 2017. For the coming decade, per capita consumption of poultry (typically the least expensive meat) is expected to increase by 5.5%, while beef and veal is projected to recover, with growth of 3.5% over the next decade, notably in China. Per capita pigmeat consumption will be flat at the global level, but growth is expected to be strong in regions and countries where pork is popular, such as Latin America and the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. The role of China in global pork consumption growth is anticipated to diminish due to an already-high level of per capita consumption. Whereas China accounted for 65% of the increase in the previous decade, it will only contribute 45% of the expansion in the next ten years. Sheepmeat will remain a niche market in most countries, despite per capita consumption growth of 8% over the next ten years, concentrated mostly in China and other Asian countries as diets in the region diversify.
July 2018/ OECD-FAO.