The Rabobank five-nation finished hog price index rebounded in the second half of Q2 2013, supported by improving conditions across the globe with limited impact of exchange rates. In the European Union, the situation is forecast to remain difficult, with continuing pressure on consumer demand hampering market recovery despite lower supply and rising exports. However, prices recovered in China, supported by the outbreak of H7N9 avian influenza in poultry, which resulted in a consumer move to pork. In the United States prices have also recovered, following the loss of key export markets, due to an increase in seasonal demand and lower-than-expected supplies.
The expectations for 2H 2013 are largely dependent on the prospects for demand as production is forecast to slightly increase. Pork markets are benefiting from relatively high prices for both beef and poultry, but will be negatively influenced by the continuing difficult economic conditions in key markets. Rabobank expects a slight increase in overall global pork consumption in 2H 2013, due in part to the start of the festival season in China. This will support rising prices, but will likely be limited due to the current large stocks across the globe.
Tuesday July 23, 2013/ Rabobank/ Netherlands.