With the peak of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDv) outbreaks behind us, the global pork industry was faced with another challenge in the shape of the Russian import ban affecting EU, US, and Canadian markets and resulting in a rapidly changing trade landscape.
According to Rabobank’s Pork Quarterly report, beneficiaries of the ban include Brazil which has seen a 30% per kilogramme price surge. Meanwhile the EU has seen its prices drop by 9% with no sign of recovery. Even taking into account the positive impact of declining feed costs on margins, it will be a disappointing year for the EU pork industry.
In USA, PEDv induced surging pork prices where further supported by consumers trading down due to higher beef prices, thereby driving one of the highest margin periods in the industry’s history. The EU pork industry has experienced a very disappointing Q3, both consumption levels and export levels will remain under pressure for the remainder of the year. In Canada, hog prices prices fell dramatically in Q3, driven by rising competition for other markets as exports were directed away from Russia – a situation which will likely continue until the ban is lifted.
Wednesday October 15, 2014/ Rabobank.