World meat production is anticipated to record a modest expansion in 2015 to 318.7 million tonnes, 1.3 percent, or 4 million tonnes, above 2014, with the largest increases expected in China, the EU, United States and Brazil. The pigmeat sector is forecast to drive the global increase, followed by poultry meat. Only modest gains in bovine and ovine meat production are currently foreseen.
World production of pigmeat is anticipated to grow by 1.9 percent to 119.4 million tonnes in 2015, aided by lower feed costs. Asia is the leading pigmeat-producing region, accounting for almost 60 percent of the world total. Strong consumer demand and government support policies are anticipated to boost China ’s output by 1.2 percent, to 57.8 million tonnes, equivalent to almost half of the world total. Elsewhere in Asia, Vietnam , the Philippines and Indonesia are foreseen to register growth rates similar to China . Production in Japan and the Republic of Korea is set to recover following last year’s outbreaks of porcine endemic diarrhoea (PED), which reduced piglet numbers. Recovery from the effects of PED is also projected to result in a rise in pigmeat production in the United States . Elsewhere in the Americas , Brazil and Canada are set to increase output, stimulated by reduced feed costs. Steady growth is also anticipated for Mexico , underpinned by improved genetics and productivity, which translates into more piglets per litter and higher animal weights. Production in the EU is expected to continue the expansion seen last year. As a reflection of this, the year-end breeding sow herd increased for the first time in several years. In the Russian Federation , government policies favouring large-scale farms have resulted in production doubling over the past decade. The trend towards increased output may be amplified in 2015, following prohibitions of pork imports from the EU and Canada, which together supplied two-thirds of Russian imports before the ban was introduced.
Trade in pigmeat is expected to recover by 1.6 percent to 7.1 million tonnes in 2015, following a decrease in the previous two years. The United States , the EU and Canada account for four-fifths of the world pig meat exports. Adding Brazil and China to the group brings the total to more than 90 percent. Expanding production in the main exporting countries is anticipated to be the main driver behind export growth. Abundance of supplies on the world market was reflected in the movement of the FAO Pigmeat Price Index which, after reaching an historic peak in June 2014, had fallen by 37 percent by April, reaching a level last seen in January 2011. An additional factor in the weakness in pigmeat prices was the country-specific import ban introduced by the Russian Federation , which particularly affected sales from the EU . Initially, EU pigmeat exports were redirected to Asia , in particular Japan , the Republic of Korea , China and the Philippines. However, towards the end of 2014 and into 2015, demand from these markets slackened and sales declined. A fall in exports increased supply to the EU domestic market causing internal prices to drop substantially. As a consequence, in February 2015, the European Commission opened a private storage aid scheme to assist price recovery. Lower international prices for pigmeat are anticipated to serve as the principal motor of trade growth. China , Mexico , the Republic of Korea , Vietnam , Australia , Angola , Singapore and Colombia and are all forecast to increase imports. Meanwhile, expansion in production in the United States , Japan and the Russian Federation is anticipated to lead to lower purchases this year.
Thursday May 7, 2015/ FAO.