The Commission has now published for the first time a short term outlook for main agricultural commodity markets. In the EU, cereals balance is expected to remain relatively tight with a 2011 production of 275 million tonnes. Meat production, boosted by good exports in 2010, is expected to continue the trend in 2011 and then decrease slightly in 2012.
The pig meat sector is facing a critical time since the autumn of 2010 due to the surge in feed prices, which has severely affected profitability. Aid for private storage was introduced for a period of three weeks in February 2011 to stabilise the pig market when the already difficult market situation
worsened by a dioxin incident in Germany. For 2011, production is expected to grow slowly (+1.7%) and then to remain stable in 2012. According to the available trade data until the end of August 2011, meat exports could exceed 2010 volumes by 13.4%. In particular exports to South Korea and China/Hong Kong performed very well, increasingly also in the area of higher value cuts. However, pigmeat exports may fall slightly in 2012 (by 4.3%). EU pigmeat imports are expected to decrease further, with -30.5% and -24% in 2011 and 2012 than in 2010. From 2010 onwards, consumption of pigmeat (absolute and per capita) will increase slightly by 0.6% in 2011 and by 0.5% in 2012.
October, 2011/ Agriculture and Rural Development/ European Union.