0
The global context favors Brazil
Brazil has established itself in recent years as a competitive supplier of pork. This competitiveness has allowed the country to expand its international presence, even in the face of global trade uncertainties.
Brazil is expected to gain market share in more price-sensitive countries as tariffs and sanitary issues change trade dynamics in 2025: China imposed retaliatory tariffs on Canada and the United States, and opened an antidumping investigation against the European Union, scheduled for completion in June. In addition, African swine fever outbreaks continue to affect production in regions such as Europe, Vietnam, the Philippines, and South Korea, which tends to increase import demand.
Market diversification
In 2020 and 2021, China represented 55% of Brazilian pork exports during a critical period of ASF outbreaks in the Asian country. In 2024, this share fell to 18%, reflecting weaker demand due to the recovery of Chinese domestic production and the economic slowdown.
Despite the drop, Brazil has compensated the losses with access to 17 new markets in 2024, reaching more than 100 destinations in total. Shipments to the Philippines, Chile, Japan, Singapore, Mexico, South Korea, Argentina, and the Dominican Republic stood out. The nearly 20% increase in exports to markets outside the top five destinations demonstrates Brazil's ability to adapt quickly to changes in international trade, which will be critical to sustaining growth in 2025 (Figure 1).
International competitiveness
Although export prices increased in 2024, Brazilian pork continues to offer a significant discount compared to other major exporters. This strategically positions the country to capture markets such as Japan, which is expected to be the world's second-largest importer in 2025, behind Mexico.
In 2024, due to currency depreciation and domestic inflation, Japan increased purchases of frozen pork and reduced imports of fresh or refrigerated pork, favoring exporters such as Brazil. Brazilian pork, due to sanitary limitations, can only be sold to Japan frozen, which aligns supply and demand. Brazil's market share in Japan grew by almost 4%.
Other major importers are also expected to prioritize frozen products due to economic pressure, reinforcing the growth potential of Brazilian exports.
Perspectives
Brazil's progress in 2025 will depend on maintaining low production costs and the ability to access new markets, especially in the context of global trade instability.
Despite the projected expansion, the United States is expected to continue to lead the world's pork exporters, thanks to the quality and reliability of the U.S. product.
May 7, 2025/ 333 Brazil with USDA data.
https://www.fas.usda.gov
