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After the Christmas break, we have returned to our particular animal laborans, as Byung-Chul Han would say. But just nine days after celebrating the start of 2026 with grapes, parties, resolutions, and good intentions for the new year, the world has continued on its usual hyperbolic path of late, but at an unusual speed. We have seen U.S. President Donald Trump post on social media that the elite Delta Force group captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and took him to New York to stand trial, riots in Iran against the Ayatollah regime, and Trump once again claiming Greenland. In short, the markets are dancing to the beat of events at a pace impossible to keep up with.
It's not that we want to pat ourselves on the back, or maybe just a little, but last year we put on our Nostradamus hats and predicted the factors that would shape 2025. In our own track record of forecasts, we didn't turn out too badly, especially with the headline "Market driven by tweets" in which we predicted it would be driven by geopolitics and the tariff war. What's the problem today? Well, given how the year has started, let's see who dares to make any predictions!
So, knowing we’re likely to get it wrong, we’ll muddle through and try to see what 2026 has in store. The most important factor is the progressive deterioration of globalization and the international norms that have governed the world since the end of World War II. On the contrary, we seem to be moving toward a world where the powers seek areas of influence. A clear example of this is the United States' capture of Maduro. Oil alone does not explain such a complex event, especially when it is trading at $60 a barrel and the United States, thanks to fracking, has reduced its dependence on crude oil imports. The U.S. government is imposing a new Monroe Doctrine focused on the American continent and surrounding areas, to the detriment of its aspirations to be the global guarantor. At the same time, China is increasing its influence in Africa (with millions of dollars of investment in ports and infrastructure) and in the Asia-Pacific, and does not want to lose power in South America (it has also financed key structures in several countries). China was Venezuela's main oil buyer, in recent months paying in renminbi and cryptocurrencies in an attempt to weaken the dollar as the hegemonic currency for oil payments. With Maduro's capture and US “supervision” of Venezuelan crude oil, China will have to look for other suppliers. It seems that Iran could be one of them (this is where the news of the unrest in Iran and the pressure on the Ayatollahs' government takes on special relevance again). Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues, even if it is not making headlines. These global political tectonic shifts could be a new driver for Putin's aspirations to regain territory of influence in Eurasia, as postulated by Aleksander Dughun, the Russian president's chief ideologue. It is important to note here that, with Trump's threat to Greenland, we are seeing one NATO member threatening another (Denmark), which further weakens the organization and puts Europe in a difficult position, as it has for years relied on the United States for military support to guarantee its security.
Let us now turn our attention to the European Union. The EU seems lost in this new scenario, without a clear direction, limiting its contribution to tweeting about its “deep concern” at every move made by the other powers. It needs leadership that can bring together the different interests of the countries in the Union. This is a risky bet for 2026, so let's not lose sight of Draghi and his potentially important role in the EU. On the other hand, and very importantly, the EU has taken another step forward with the EUDR, known as the Deforestation Law, which we have discussed several times. It was supposed to be implemented on December 31, and had the market running around like a chicken with its head cut off: now it applies, now it doesn't... until the end of the year. Like Groundhog Day, we have another 12 months ahead of us. It would be nice if, for once, we didn't have to wait until the last minute for companies to make decisions. Another hot topic is the Mercosur agreement. On Friday, January 9, the European Union gave the green light to the agreement with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. This agreement is causing a lot of concern and social controversy in several countries, especially in France (an important agricultural producer). This unrest will spill over into the streets in the coming weeks, putting even more pressure on the French government, which is already in a crisis of governance.
Harvests have been abundant this past year, and we continue to have comfortable stocks at the end of the season. We are now facing decisive months for the evolution of sowings in the northern hemisphere, which will determine the summer harvests. It is important to follow developments closely.
The trade war between China and the United States remains latent. It is true that the belligerence has been reduced, but it is far from being fully resolved. China has committed to purchasing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025 and 25 million tons each year from 2026 to 2028. So far, China has purchased a total of approximately 10 million tons. We will see if it fulfills the agreement.
Although stock markets remain at record highs despite global political uncertainty, funds are maintaining short positions in wheat (especially MATIF). This is a sign to bear in mind. Funds will remain short as long as this summer's harvests remain good or excellent, but they will have to cover those shorts in the event of any weather event that changes the forecast.
On the other hand, we cannot fail to mention local consumption in Spain. In Catalonia, the outbreak of African swine fever in wild boars has put a strategic sector on high alert. For the moment, it has been limited to wild boars, with no impact on farms, but the wait is tense until the eradication of the disease can be confirmed. We have also seen outbreaks of avian flu on farms in several Spanish regions and the appearance of contagious nodular dermatosis on cattle farms in the province of Girona. There is cautious consumption when it comes to long-term purchases, pending developments in these news stories, especially given that the country's granaries are still overflowing with this year's excellent harvest and the ports remain full.
Let us conclude this article with a stylistic license that aptly defines the times we live in: the tracksuit Maduro was wearing in the photo proving his capture, from a well-known American brand, sold out within minutes of the photo being published. In turbulent times, there are always business opportunities.
