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Those who thought that the grain and oilseed market had become tedious and boring, and above all, “controllable,” should have thought twice. In the last 15 days, they have been given a reality check, with volatility and rising prices dominating the market.
But what happened? How is that possible? This is what buyers around the world must be wondering. After months of corn prices in Spanish ports available until December 2026 between €208 and €212/t and wheat prices for January/May 2026 between €217 and €220/t, suddenly, there has been a flurry of news that turns the market upside down and completely eliminates that feeling of control and not missing out on opportunities.
In hindsight, one can only think, “We were doing so well!” Record harvests worldwide, planting progressing well, trade wars putting pressure on prices...
Soybeans and the EUDR
Let's look at this piece by piece. First, let's talk about soybeans. As you may recall, we have discussed this topic here on more than one occasion. The European Union, in its crusade against deforestation, implemented the EUDR regulation, which affects several products (palm oil, chocolate, coffee, etc.), including soybeans. This law, which reviews the origin of these products and aims to curb the destruction of forests, was due to come into force on December 30, 2024, but has been postponed for another year. The objective is undoubtedly laudable, but it has caused much uncertainty surrounding the technical difficulties involved in its implementation. For exporters, especially those in Latin America and Southeast Asia, the law is equivalent to a bureaucratic earthquake. They will need to demonstrate that their crops have not destroyed a single hectare of forest by complying with good environmental practices and including the exact geolocation of the plots of origin.
A month ago, at the end of September, the EU hinted at the possibility of delaying the law's entry into force for large companies by another year. This gave the market the opportunity to hedge soybeans for all of 2026 at historically low and competitive prices (around €305-310/t depending on positions).
The problem? Just over a week ago, the Commission suggested that it did not consider it necessary to further delay the regulation's implementation. However, it promised some bureaucratic flexibility and offered companies a six-month grace period without penalties. The result? Rising prices and, worst of all, the inability to make purchases in either the short or long term. This highly unusual situation has caused a great deal of stress in the market, both for large companies that had sold soybeans for all of 2026, believing that the implementation of the law would be postponed, and for manufacturers who have seen the price of soybeans rise by around €65/t, which is almost nothing.
Meanwhile, in the EU, officials and politicians must be having coffee, discussing whether to postpone the law again or keep the effective date in just 58 days. Of course, it's sure to be deforestation-free coffee.
Soybeans and the Butan agreement
An ocean away, another equally important battle has been fought between China and the United States, two countries that have one of the most complicated relationships in the world. For years, China was the main buyer of US soybeans, but the relationship soured with the trade war of 2018 (Trump's first term), and despite having had slightly better years, they have had a well-known on-again, off-again relationship since February 2025. China remains the world's largest importer of soybeans and a major customer of the United States, but a love triangle has emerged, as Brazil has stolen a large share of the US market with competitive prices. At the meeting held in Busan on October 30, China came prepared, with large stocks in its ports and purchases in Brazil, pressuring the United States to reach an agreement and lower tariffs, using American farmers, the backbone of Trump's electorate, as hostages. At the meeting, among other issues, it was agreed that China would purchase 12 million tons of soybeans in October and committed to purchasing 25 million tons each year for three years. To give us an idea, the American harvest is 118 million tons of soybeans, and Chinese consumption is approximately 112 million, meaning that we are talking about a commitment of 21% of the total American supply. This agreement has also caused increases in the Chicago market, further bolstering the prices of soybeans, corn, and wheat.
The American delegation has publicly proclaimed the success of the Busan agreement, while the Chinese delegation has maintained calculated silence. Now the important thing is to see whether this agreement, which marked the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Xi since 2019, will finally ease the trade tensions that have taken center stage during the last year.
There are two months left until the end of 2025: Fasten your seatbelts!
