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Since coming to power, Donald Trump has engaged in a trade war with U.S. economic partners. The economic consequences for pig farms vary from region to region.
United States / China
The trade war between the two world giants has resumed with the return of D. Trump to power. The United States has decided to impose customs duties on Chinese products, and various announcements have followed. China has already responded by introducing additional duties on top of the existing tariffs. As a result, American pork will be penalized in the Chinese territory, and total customs duties will be applied depending on the pork products...
In 2024, the United States was China's second-largest supplier, just behind Spain, with approximately 438,000 tons exported, valued at €921 million. The market share of U.S. products in China reached nearly 20% by volume. Among the products exported to China, about two-thirds were offal, and the remaining third consisted of frozen cuts. The increase in tariffs on entry into the Chinese market will lead to a decrease in the volume of imported U.S. products and a drop in their prices.
A direct consequence will be the loss of market share for the United States, which would imply the need to find new growth markets. In 2024, China absorbed 55% of the offal exported by the United States, far ahead of Mexico (27%) and the Philippines (7%). Given China’s importance and the limited number of alternative markets, it is likely that the United States will lose only around 30% of the offal volume currently exported to China. This volume should primarily be redistributed between Mexico and the Philippines. The loss of offal volume exported by the U.S. would represent around 90,000 tons.
China accounts for just 6% of the frozen cuts exported by the United States. The alternative destinations are much more numerous (Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Latin America, Canada...). It is likely that China’s retaliatory measures against U.S. products will lead to a drop in pork export volumes of around 75%—that is, over 330,000 tons—as exporting meat to China will become too costly for U.S. slaughterhouses, reducing their profit margins. To remain competitive against European and Brazilian product prices, the unit value of U.S. products sold in this market will need to decrease. This loss in value is estimated at over €250 million.
European and Brazilian producers could take advantage of the volumes lost by the United States in the Chinese market due to increased tariffs. Furthermore, diplomatic relations are becoming strained with other countries: China has recently confirmed its intention to impose an additional 25% tariff on Canadian pork, eliminating the possibility of Canada positioning itself as an alternative to U.S. pork in this market. The temporary drop in supply in China will lead to increases in pork prices. The impacts of this trade war on other economic sectors make it difficult to foresee a recovery in consumption or economic growth in China. Chinese imports of pork products will likely remain at the same level as in 2024. However, China has announced its intention to strengthen trade partnerships with BRICS countries (namely Brazil and Russia in particular). As a result, European producers will face competition from Brazil and, to a lesser extent, from Russia.
United States / East Asia
Other Asian markets are not exempt either. They will suffer variable tariff increases depending on the country. These markets (Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, etc.) have not retaliated against U.S. products because of the expected economic consequences in other sectors. In practice, U.S. pork will not be penalized in price in these markets. However, even if East Asian markets have not raised their tariffs, they may be less willing to buy U.S. pork, favoring other suppliers such as the EU-27, Brazil, Canada, and, to a lesser extent, Russia.
United States / European Union
The EU-27 has also not been spared from the trade war led by Donald Trump. European products would be taxed at an additional 20%. Around 100,000 t of pork and pork products would be affected, mainly cuts and processed products. It is hypothesized that the EU would maintain its volumes exported to the United States for several reasons:
- Authorizations to export to the U.S. are difficult to obtain and relatively expensive.
- A significant part of the products exported by the EU-27 are high-value-added products, such as Italian and Polish sausages, which, due to the presence of ASF, have few market alternatives.
- These products are poorly substitutable and are specific to U.S. demand. Exporters will likely refuse to lose their place in this market.
However, the unit price of the products could decrease, as could the margins of European processors, in order to maintain their competitiveness. The increase in tariffs on pork and processed products is expected to cause margin losses of over €115 million for European exporters, two-thirds of which would come from high-value-added processed products—mainly affecting Italian exporters (20,000 tons of processed products in 2024), Polish exporters (8,000 tons), and Danish exporters (7,000 tons). Beyond the lost margin, some volumes could remain in the European market, increasing import pressure.
What opportunities are there for Europe and Brazil?
In the Chinese market, European and Brazilian pork products (cuts and offal) were already the most competitive compared to those of North American origin in the last three years. These two major producers and exporters are expected to compensate for the reduction in U.S. volumes in this market (about 450,000 t of pork and offal).
The numerous and contradictory statements made by the U.S. president call for great caution when assessing their impact. For this reason, IFIP is considering several scenarios for the redistribution of the tonnage freed up by the United States between Brazil and the EU-27.
- Current split: 15% for Brazil and 50% for the EU-27, 35% others;
- Equal between exporters: 50% - 50% between Brazil and EU-27;
- Growth for Brazil: 50% for Brazil and 30% for the EU, 20% others.
The volumes involved would then range between 125,000 tons and 225,000 tons for the EU, and between 65,000 tons and 225,000 tons for Brazil. These volumes could be supplemented by opportunities in other East Asian markets that have not taken retaliatory measures against the U.S. but may become less inclined to continue purchasing American pork. This will depend on the trade relationships between suppliers and Asian buyers, and above all, on pork availability in producing regions. Growth prospects for Brazil in 2025 are slightly positive (+1.2% in production compared to 2024, or +54,000 metric tons of carcass equivalent), while they remain stable for the EU-27. Limited additional availability will lead to a redistribution of trade flows (a reduction in intra-European trade to redirect exports outside the EU) and an increase in pork prices in both markets.
In the European market, in a context of supply stabilization, an increase of 125,000 tons in pork demand would lead to a rise of approximately 1.1% in annual production prices. An increase of 225,000 tons in export demand would result in an average annual increase of around 2.7% in pork prices on the French market. These prospects are promising for pig farmers and exporters, especially in a context of easing raw material prices. The processed meat sector could be more negatively impacted due to reduced availability in the market and the expected rise in meat prices. In Brazil’s case, soybean prices are expected to increase, and Brazilian farmers may, in the medium term, prioritize the value of soybeans over pork production. This could lead to a reduction in pork supply if the conflict continues.
Beyond the direct economic repercussions for the pork value chain, the trade war led by President Trump is expected to have other significant consequences. The anticipated increase in prices for consumers, both in the U.S. and China, as well as uncertainties about the sustainability of demand, could slow global economic growth. This war marks the beginning of a global crisis. This context will be detrimental to international trade, producers, businesses, and consumers. While short-term growth opportunities may arise, most countries and economic actors will ultimately be harmed. The volatility of President Trump’s statements makes these forecasts uncertain; the economic impacts will vary in magnitude and duration depending on the statements made.
Elisa Husson, IFIP economist.
