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Compared to 2023, the Netherlands' pig inventory has decreased by 35%, and the average farm size has doubled. They have minimal emissions due to closed barn systems and manure processing. The sector is completely climate neutral, antibiotic use is low, and animal welfare has improved: standard farrowing crates and tail docking are a thing of the past.
Rabobank predicts that further reconstruction and sustainability of the pig farming sector will lead to fewer pigs and (much) fewer farms by 2040.
To meet the nitrogen challenge, the majority of farms will evolve into high-tech operations with closed barn systems and complete manure processing. Emissions are low and measured directly (in real time); if emissions exceed these levels, the pig farmer takes corrective action. The societal desire for more open systems, allowing pigs to go outdoors, is being met by the organic sector.
By 2040, the so-called "Holland Varken" (Dutch Pig) will be an important quality label, making the origin of every piece of meat and every piglet verifiable. Due to lower supply and higher costs, meat exports outside the EU will decline, but the high-quality production will create new markets in the Netherlands and the rest of the EU where the added value can be capitalized. The high welfare standards and low carbon footprint are particularly strong assets. Stable supply chain relationships and long-term price agreements ensure financial stability.
December 19, 2025/ Rabobank.
https://www.rabobank.nl/
