Rabobank anticipates reduced global pork supply in 2020

COVID-19 has shaken the global pork industry, disrupting the supply chain and causing various challenges.

According to Rabobank's report, "Pork Quarterly Q3 2020: More Uncertainties Ahead," in China, imports are slowing down, Europe expects a lower production, and US prices are under pressure due to high hog inventories. Brazil, however, had higher exports in the first half of the year.

China has placed restrictions on several exporters due to COVID-19 outbreaks. "Prices will likely stay at high levels, given the expectation of slowing imports and rising ASF outbreaks due to heavy rain and flooding." according to Cheniun Pan, Rabobank Senior Analyst.

Rabobank expects production in Europe to be down 0.5% in 2020. Exports have remained strong but, "uncertainties are rising."

In the US due to labor challenges related to COVID-19, "plants are likely to accelerate programs to automate and digitize where possible" and focus more on retail products, Despite these issues and decreased shackle space, "exports for the year are expected to be up 18% year-on-year."

In Brazil, exports were up 37% in the first half of the year. "This is in contrast to soft local demand, which is dragging down production."

Rabobank anticipates a global decline in the pork supply of 8%. "The biggest year-on-year declines are expected in China, the Philippines, and Vietnam."

July 25, 2020/ 333 Staff with information from Rabobank

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