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Global summary
Uncertainties
- African swine fever (ASF) overwhelms the 2020 outlook – as it did in 2019 – and will pull down overall growth and bring uncertainty to all markets.
- Aquaculture and poultry will lead production growth in 2020, beef stable, and wild-catch seafood in decline. These changes are minor compared with the production decline in pork.
- Trade disputes and issues causing uncertainty for global animal protein, with the US-China trade war the most apparent.
- Sustainability is slightly less prominent issue, but still important, as it will shape the growth of animal protein production and consumption through the 2020s.
Opportunities
- Continued recovery from ASF.
- Winning on sustainability by harnessing supply chain and moving ahead of market signals.
- Investing to secure ongoing trade flows which can reduce uncertainty and secure continuous market access.
Regional Outlooks
North America
- Production for all species expected to rise in 2020- led by pork, followed by poultry and beef. Domestic consumption will grow but exports will still need to increase to manage growth.
Europe
- Poultry and pork set to rise, pork driven by export opportunities. Beef expected to decline in response to lower consumption.
China
- ASF dominates outlook, pork production to continue to decline in 2020. Production of other species set to grow due to pork shortage and high prices.
Brazil
- All species expect production growth driven by export opportunities and improving domestic demand.
South-East Asia
- ASF expected to spread further. Poultry set to rise strongly. Beef production steady but imports on the rise.
Australia and New Zealand
- Australia's beef production down, lamb stable with firm prices for both. New Zealand's beef and lamb production to rise with favorable prices.
November 13, 2019 / Rabobank / The Netherlands
https://research.rabobank.com/
