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The European Commission’s DG Agriculture and Rural Development has just published the Short-term Outlook for EU Agricultural Markets in 2025 (July 2025 edition). According to the report, EU pigmeat consumption remains stable in 2025, driven by competitive retail prices and increased domestic availability.
Production rose by 3.2% year-on-year during January–March 2025, extending the 2024 recovery (+2%). The growth was driven by both an increase in slaughter numbers (+1.3%) and heavier carcass weights (+1.8%). Among major producers, Spain (+6%), Germany (+4%), Denmark (+4%) and Poland (+3%) led the rise, while countries such as France, Belgium and the Netherlands saw slight declines.
Despite this increase, EU pigmeat output is expected to slightly decline in the second half of the year (resulting in a -0.4% change overall) due to a 3% drop in breeding sows as of December 2024. African Swine Fever (ASF) remains a production risk.
The average EU pigmeat price began rising again in February. Though still slightly below 2024 levels, prices remain above the 5-year average. Combined with slightly reduced feed costs, producers continue to enjoy positive margins. Pigmeat remains the most affordable meat, supporting demand, which rose by 2.4% in 2024 and is forecast to remain stable at 31.7 kg per capita in 2025.
However, the report warns that the EU is losing competitiveness globally. Its prices remain significantly higher than those in Brazil, the US and Canada, limiting export opportunities. After four years of declines, EU pigmeat exports stabilised in Jan–Apr 2025 (+0.9% vs. 2024), but shipments to key markets like the UK (-6%), Japan (-19%) and the US (-9.5%) dropped. Exports to Viet Nam doubled due to demand for pork lard, and exports to China rose slightly (+3.8%).
Looking ahead, EU exports are expected to fall by 3% in 2025 if the price gap remains. China’s anti-dumping investigation (extended to Dec 2025) and potential US tariffs add further uncertainty.
July 28, 2025/ EU agricultural markets short-term outlook – summer 2025/ EU.
