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Production of wheat, corn, barley, and oats is forecast to increase 2% year-over-year to 62.7 million metric tons in marketing year 2025/26 on an assumption that area planted to grains will increase 2.2% year-over-year to 27.5 million hectares. Only barley area is expected to shrink, though only marginally. This forecast is informed by Statistics Canada’s planting intentions survey published on March 12, 2025. Yields are assumed to move in line with three-year averages, signifying a slight decrease in yield for corn and barley year-over-year.
Soil moisture conditions in the prairie provinces have improved in March 2025 compared to the same time during the previous three years, boosting confidence that the Prairies will avoid a drought year.
Total exports are forecast to increase 2.4% from marketing year 2025/26, primarily on increased exports of wheat, but also barley, corn, and oats. Total imports are forecast to increase by less than 1% as a small increase in demand for feed wheat offsets a decline in oat demand. Domestic feed demand is forecast to increase only marginally as growth is hindered by shrinking cattle and hog herd sizes in 2024.
May 1, 2025/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
