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The National Supply Company (CONAB) released the Fourth Survey of the 2025/26 Grain Crop on January 15, which shows a 0.3% increase in Brazilian grain production and a 2.6% growth in cultivated area compared to the previous agricultural season. In this new scenario, the estimated production of the country's 16 main crops would reach 353.1 million tons, in a projected area of 83.9 million hectares, representing 987,500 tons more and 2.1 million hectares more than the 2024/25 crop.
The North/Northeast Region, with an estimated production of 55.8 million tons, accounts for 15.8% of the total, and the Center-South Region's, projected at 297.3 million tons, corresponds to 84.2% of national production. The Central-West Region stands out as the main producer, with 174.5 million tons, representing 49.4% of the national total.
Soybeans, the country's main crop, reached 176.1 million tons, a 2.7% increase over the previous harvest, representing an increase of 4.6 million tons. Planting area also increased by 1.3 million hectares (+2.8%), rising from approximately 47.4 million hectares to 48.7 million hectares. Despite the increase in production and area, grain productivity remained stable, with a slight negative fluctuation of 0.1%. This decrease is explained by irregular rainfall with volumes below expectations in regions of Mato Grosso do Sul and physical limitations in sandy soils in some areas of Goiás, despite the estimated increase in productivity in Rio Grande do Sul this harvest.
Corn also saw an increase in estimated total planted area across all three crops, reaching 22.7 million hectares. The outlook points to a 4% expansion, rising from 21.7 million hectares in the 2024/25 season to 22.8 million hectares in the current crop year—an increase of 871.8 thousand hectares. However, due to weather events such as storms, hail, low and high temperatures, and dry spells in the southern region of the country, as well as a lack of rainfall during the early development stage in Minas Gerais affecting the first crop, corn production is projected to decline by 1.5% and productivity by 5.3% when all three seasons are taken into account. In terms of output, production is expected to fall from 141 million tons in the 2024/25 season to around 138.9 million tons in the current season, a reduction of 2.23 million tons. As for productivity, yields are estimated to drop by 343 kg per hectare, from 6,457 kg/ha in the previous agricultural cycle to 6,114 kg/ha this season.
January 15, 2026/ Conab/ Brazil.
https://www.gov.br
