0
The second estimate for the 2025/26 grain harvest indicates the production volume at 354.8 million tons. With the progress of planting for the first harvest, the National Supply Company (Conab) forecasts a total area of 84.4 million hectares in the current season, a 3.3% increase in planted area compared to the 2024/25 season, as shown in the 2nd Grain Survey for the current season, released on November 13 by the Company. The national average yield, still based on statistical model analyses and climate forecasts, is projected at 4,203 kilograms per hectare. However, the Company remains attentive to weather conditions in producing regions, monitoring adverse weather events such as those in Paraná, irregular rainfall in Mato Grosso, and delayed rainfall in Goiás, with the aim of qualifying crop performance information as crops develop.
For soybeans, the Conab survey indicates a 3.6% increase in the planted area in 2025/26, totaling 49.1 million hectares, with production estimated at 177.6 million tons. According to the state-owned company's Crop Progress report, oilseed sowing in the current season remains within the average for the last five years, but is delayed compared to the same period of the previous season, particularly in Goiás and Minas Gerais. In these two states, rainfall levels have not been sufficient for planting to progress. In Mato Grosso, planting continues at a similar pace to last season. However, with the climatic instability recorded in October, the crop was not planted under ideal conditions, with some areas sown in early October feeling the effects of water shortages, compromising plant density per hectare and the initial establishment of the oilseed.
In the case of corn, total production in 2025/26 from the three harvests is estimated at 138.8 million tons, a 1.6% reduction compared to the previous season. In the first harvest, the planted area is expected to increase by 7.1%, with production forecast at 25.9 million tons. The planting of the first crop has already reached 47.7% of the area, slightly above the average for the last 5 years. Low temperatures during certain periods in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul delayed the emergence and initial development of the crop, but without interfering with its production potential. In addition, some cultivated areas were negatively impacted by heavy rains, strong winds, and hailstorms in early November in Paraná, after the field surveys were conducted. Conab is still assessing the possible impacts of these weather events.
Market
In this survey, Conab predicts that around 94.6 million tons of corn will be consumed domestically in the 2025/26 season, a 4.5% increase compared to the previous one, driven mainly by higher demand for ethanol production. Exports are also expected to increase and may reach 46.5 million tons, supported by a maintained good production surplus. Even with these increases, the outlook is that carryover stocks at the end of the 2025/26 harvest will remain close to stable.
As for soybeans, with the forecast reduction in exports from the United States, increased global demand, and expectations of higher Brazilian production, significant growth in the country's exports is estimated, which may reach 112.1 million tons in the 2025/26 season, an increase of 5.11% over the previous season. In addition, the expected increase in the mandatory blend of biodiesel in diesel, coupled with growing demand for vegetable protein, suggests that the volume of soybeans destined for milling could reach 59.37 million tons in 2026. This volume represents an increase of 1.37% compared to the previous year.
November 13, 2025/ Conab/ Brazil.
https://www.gov.br
