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October shook up the German pig market and eventually found a fragile stability at a lower level. At the beginning of the month, the quotation was still holding steady at €1.85, supported by expectations that supply and demand would remain balanced. Then the mood suddenly turned. Within just a few days, prices slipped to €1.70, marking a sharp break in the market. The reasons were a backlog of live pigs after the public holiday, restrained demand from slaughterhouses, and pressure from the European environment. Large processors pointed to their squeezed margins and the now weaker domestic price structure. This mix of additional supply and hesitant demand triggered the correction.
After the drop, the situation gradually moved toward equilibrium. By the end of the month, reports described a more orderly picture with supply and slaughter capacity finding balance again. Prices remained at the lower level with only isolated signs of firmness. The market did not appear cheerful, but it was manageable. The main takeaway was clear: after the sudden jolt, the sector mainly needed time to clear backlogs and restore normal flows of animals and meat.
Sows also came under pressure in October. Slaughterhouses reported ample supply for processing and lowered their own payout prices. These adjustments reinforced the sense of a market struggling for balance across the entire chain, not just in finishing pigs. Piglet prices also fell noticeably as sluggish demand met a broad supply. For finishers this meant cheaper purchase prices, but for piglet producers it added yet another burden.
Politically, the month was anything but quiet. A coalition of agricultural associations presented a joint concept for revising the Livestock-Labelling-Act and it met with broad approval. The proposal stands on five clear pillars: integrating existing private labelling systems, extending the labelling requirement to the out of home sector so that even restaurant meat is labelled with the housing type, including imported goods, defining legal terms more precisely, and allowing complete downgrading when conditions are not met. The message was unmistakable: instead of creating new bureaucracy, the plan aims to build on existing systems, faster, more practical, and more accepted. At the same time, the associations stressed that the current version of the law cannot simply start as scheduled.
Another political signal brought some relief. Berlin announced an extension of the application deadline for the federal program supporting the transformation of livestock housing. This gives farms already planning conversions some breathing space, but it does not replace the need for swift follow up programs at the state level. In particular, sow farms need reliable bridges to prevent investment plans from getting stuck in red tape, a point repeatedly emphasized by industry representatives.
Structurally, the market remained in motion. Following Vion’s withdrawal from the German slaughter business, signs of further shifts became apparent. At the Tönnies site in Weißenfels a second shift is being prepared while the Perleberg plant is disappearing from the market. For many producers in eastern Germany this means fewer buyers to choose from and longer transport routes to slaughterhouses. Capacity can be redistributed, but concentration is clearly increasing and reshaping the map of pig marketing in Germany.
Internationally, two opposing forces shaped the picture. On one hand, Chinese anti-dumping tariffs curbed European exports, adding pressure to the EU pork market and leading to falling or stagnant quotations in several countries. Spain stood out particularly in this respect. On the other hand, there was a positive impulse from Asia. At the end of October, South Korea reopened its market for German pork. The country is an important buyer for specific cuts, and the sector visibly breathed a sigh of relief. The combination of a slowdown toward China and new opportunities in South Korea sums up the situation well, not brilliant but at least offering some renewed prospects.
What does this mean for the outlook?
It appears that the supply of slaughter-ready pigs will remain limited in the coming weeks. Lower piglet imports this year are having a delayed effect and could dampen the usual seasonal increase in supply. This raises the chance that the lower price level will not trigger another slide but rather serve as a base for gradual stabilization. On the demand side, much depends on how meat sales develop toward the end of the year and whether fresh products move more quickly through retail. Exports to South Korea could provide some tailwind, especially by easing pressure on the belly market. Meanwhile, the European market remains well supplied. October has shown how quickly sentiment can change but also how fast the chain can adapt again. In the short term, the outlook remains subdued; in the medium term, smaller live supplies could allow prices to at least hold steady.
The market is not without risks, but it appears more balanced than it was in mid-October. All in all, October was a lesson in keeping calm under pressure, first the loud crash, then the slow stabilization. For those marketing pigs in Germany, November promises no miracles but offers a fair chance of stability, bolstered by hopes of increased exports to South Korea. Still, even though Germany itself is not directly affected by the Chinese anti-dumping tariffs, since exports there remain blocked due to ASF, the enormous pressure across the EU market is unlikely to ease anytime soon.
