0
At the beginning of last year, we launched our survey asking 333 users from different global markets what they expected pig prices to be in 2025. We had 568 users collaborate from 70 different countries by answering the question “What do you think the average pig price in your country will be?”
Now that 2025 has come to a close, it is time to compare the predictions with reality.
Figure 1 shows a comparison between the price predictions provided by 333 users and the actual average price for 2025, according to the data available in the 333 price system, for each of the markets analyzed. Figure 2 also provides a complementary perspective on this comparison by showing it alongside the evolution of the average price recorded in recent years.
Figure 1. 333 survey on pig prices in 2025: comparison between the forecasts of 333 users (February to April 2025) and the actual price recorded throughout 2025. The number of data points analyzed is shown in parentheses.
After closing the survey, when we analyzed the forecasts, we saw that European users' predictions were lower than the previous two years, 2023 and 2024, which were record years. In contrast, American users expected more favorable prices, while Asian users presented mixed results.
Ultimately, reality brought prices well below expectations in virtually all the markets analyzed, even in Europe, where forecasts were already on the downside. Only Brazil achieved a price slightly higher than expected.
In markets where expectations exceeded reality, the average gap between predictions and actual prices was 6.1%, ranging from 0.6% (-0.28 MXN) in Mexico to 12.9% (-1203 COP) in Colombia. In the European Union, the main producing countries had deviations of more than €0.10 from the forecasts: -€0.12 in Spain, -€0.11 in Germany, and -€0.13 in France. In Asia, forecasts for the Chinese market were much closer to reality (-0.55 CNY) than in Vietnam (-6,560 VND).
In previous surveys, the actual average price was usually within the predicted price range. However, this was not the case on this occasion. The case of Colombia is particularly noteworthy, where the actual price was more than 200 pesos below the lowest forecast, something totally unusual in the results of previous surveys for this market.
Despite the general gap between expectations and reality, Mexico, the country with the most accurate forecast, practically hit the nail on the head, as its forecast of 46.25 MXN/kg live was almost exactly the actual average price of 45.97 MXN/kg live.
Figura 2. Evolution of the average pig price and standard deviation by year and country until 2025 (blue). The orange line shows the (median) price prediction for 2025 made by users who participated in the 333 pig price survey.
The survey on the average pig price in 2026 is now open. Make your prediction using the following link: What do you think the average hog price will be in your country in 2026?
