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At the beginning, the German pig market appeared to follow a calm course. The marketing of pigs proceeded steadily in many regions and the supply of live animals generally matched demand. Overall, it was an environment that initially offered little cause for concern. Slaughter companies took up the animals on offer and the trade settled into its usual rhythm, while attention shifted toward the Christmas season which normally provides additional momentum.
As the month progressed, however, the situation changed in a way that attracted widespread attention. Pressure increased noticeably on the pig market. In line with developments in other European countries, the German quotation slipped as well. The price fell by ten cents and this drop came as a shock to farmers, especially given the already low price level. For many producers, the decline was not only surprising in its magnitude. The timing immediately before the start of the Christmas business was particularly unsettling. December usually brings stronger demand and many market participants had expected slaughter companies to expand their activities. Instead, companies reported that planned increases were not implemented to the extent previously anticipated. Activity remained limited and some firms even refrained from giving precise information, which added to the uncertainty. The fact that slaughterhouses did not increase their capacities irritates producers as the lower live pig price has still not been reflected at the retail counter.
At the same time, the supply of live pigs grew seasonally. The European meat market was clearly saturated and the continued import duties imposed by China on European pork remained a burden. Meat that would normally have been exported had to be placed within Europe. This led to Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain pushing into neighbouring markets and increasing competitive pressure. The German quotation could not withstand these conditions for long. The price drop therefore hit farms at a moment when they had actually expected more positive impulses.
The mood in the piglet market was similarly tense. For much of the month, the quotations remained stable. Price recommendations continued to stand at €44.00 for 25-kilogram animals and regional prices moved within the same narrow corridor. Despite this, the marketing of freely traded batches proved increasingly difficult. Reports already indicated in the middle of the month that although the supply continued to move, placing additional groups was becoming more challenging.
Toward the end of the month the situation changed abruptly. The VEZG price for 25-kilogram piglets fell to €40.00. This decline signalled clearly that the strain on the market had now fully reached the piglet segment. Piglet prices typically reflect the expectations of finishing farms and when their confidence drops the quotations react quickly. Some observers had predicted a potential stabilisation supported by the upcoming Christmas demand, but the news of the price collapse in slaughter pigs caused the piglet market to follow suit. The drop confirmed that the uncertainty felt by finishers, triggered by the weaker pig price, was now being passed directly to upstream stages.
The sow market also came under pressure toward the end of the month. Processors absorbed the available quantities during the first half of the month, even though meat sales lagged behind expectations. Once slaughter pig prices fell, it became impossible to maintain a stable price level for sows.
Beyond the price developments, structural issues once again moved into focus. Discussions about the future of several slaughter facilities in southern Germany continued. Some sites remain at a crossroad, facing decisions about modernisation, sale or closure. The situation is marked by high fixed costs, strong regional dependencies and growing concern that valuable capacities in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg may be lost. If such structural challenges intensify, the consequences for marketing throughout the region could be considerable, as the existing capacities are already operating close to their limits.
The political sphere also played a significant role. The extension of the application deadline for the federal support programme for barn conversion was welcomed, yet many considered it insufficient because permitting procedures often take a great deal of time. Industry associations demanded that a submitted building application should be enough to qualify for funding in the future, as otherwise valuable months could be lost. At the same time, the “Initiative Tierwohl” reopened opportunities for piglet producers to enter the programme starting in 2026, though with tight deadlines and limited financial security beyond that year.
International influences remained decisive. The price declines in the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain and France illustrated the extent of the competitive pressure across Europe. Sales to Asia remained weaker than expected and competition within Europe continued to intensify. This made any form of price stabilisation difficult and had a direct impact on the German markets. The question of whether China will reopen its markets to European exporters by lifting import duties remains difficult to answer. Given China's own high supply pressure, however, a reversal seems unlikely for the time being.
The outlook is therefore mixed. The Christmas business may offer some short-term support, yet the strong market volatility remains unpredictable. The price declines have made it clear that traditional seasonal patterns have shifted and that the sector faces a period in which international forces, political decisions and structural uncertainties interact more closely than ever. The coming weeks will show whether the market can return to a more stable course after this turbulent end of the month or whether the pressure will continue. For now, it appears that relief is not in sight.
