Ending stocks of pork cuts increased to 631 million pounds in September, an increase of 28.5 percent over a year earlier. September’s ending stocks increase is the 21st consecutive year-over-year increase in monthly pork ending stocks since December 2010. The jump in September ending stocks follows strong positive year-over-year stocks changes that have averaged almost 22 percent since May.
There is some anecdotal evidence suggesting that recent stocks accumulation foreshadows increases in exports. It is more likely, however, that large pork ending stocks in 2012 have been a consequence of low product prices resulting from production increases and slower growth in exports and domestic pork demand. The figure below shows the USDA-estimated pork carcass cutout, a series calculated from wholesale pork prices.
Thursday November 15, 2012/ ERS-USDA/ United States.