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The year 2025 was marked by a strong expansion in pork production across the region. Performance in the leading countries confirmed this trend, with positive growth rates that brought the total volume to over 9.5 million metric tons (Mt), representing a 4.6% increase compared to 2024. In terms of international trade, imports reached nearly 2.3 Mt, an 11.3% increase over the previous year; exports, meanwhile, rose by 7.1%, reaching 1.9 Mt. Regional apparent consumption reached 10 Mt, comprised of 77% domestic production and 23% imports.
Figure 1. Results and overview of key variables in the Latin American swine industry in 2025, annual variation.
Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from IBGE, SIAP, SAGyP, Porkcolombia, and ODEPA.
The following technical analysis of key indicators for the leading producing countries in Latin America details the determining factors and trends that shaped the pace of activity in 2025.
Brazil: In 2025, Brazil’s pork production experienced exceptional growth, establishing itself as the world’s third-largest exporter after reaching a record-high export volume of 1.48 million metric tons, primarily destined for key markets such as the Philippines, China, and Chile. This momentum was accompanied by steadily expanding production, which reached 5.56 Mt. Likewise, the domestic market reaffirmed its strength with a 1.9% increase in apparent consumption. Although imports grew significantly, their overall volume remained very marginal compared to the rest of the industry.
Mexico: Mexican pork production stood out in 2025, reaching an all-time high of 1.92 million metric tons and posting solid growth of 6.0%, outpacing poultry and beef. At the same time, the country faced an unprecedented influx of imports (1.91 Mt), primarily from the United States and Canada, with a notable 76.8% increase in purchases from Brazil. On the other hand, amid declining exports, the market had a robust supply, allowing apparent consumption to grow by 9.3%, and enabling per capita consumption to rise to 23.5 kg.
Argentina: In 2025, Argentina’s pork production experienced a period of expansion, with output exceeding 810,000 metric tons (t). This growth was driven by strong domestic demand, which pushed apparent consumption to over 870,000 t, resulting in an estimated average per capita consumption of 18.9 kg. Regarding international trade, exports declined by 14.9% in volume while imports grew significantly, thereby maintaining the trade deficit characteristic of recent years and increasing the presence of imported products in the domestic market, which accounted for 6.3% of apparent consumption.
Figure 2. Pork production in 2025 in the major Latin American countries and the regional total, annual changes.
Prepared by 333 Latin America using data from IBGE, SIAP, SAGyP, Porkcolombia, and ODEPA.
Colombia: The sector closed out 2025 with record growth and widespread momentum, driven primarily by strong demand. In this regard, pork production grew by 9.1%, exceeding 660,000 tons, while apparent consumption surpassed 840,000 tons, representing a per capita consumption of 15.8 kg. Although imports increased by 6.6%, domestic production maintained a 79% share of total consumption.
Chile: The Chilean pork sector showed stable production, characterized by a strengthening of the domestic market despite a slight contraction in international trade. Moderate increases were recorded in pork production, which reached nearly 590,000 metric tons. In contrast, both imports and exports experienced slight declines of 1.8% and 3.4%, respectively. This scenario drove and confirmed a sustained expansion of domestic demand, bringing apparent consumption to nearly 460,000 metric tons, with domestic production increasing its share to 71.9%.
Projections for 2026
The results consolidated in 2025 reflect structural growth in the region’s production capacity, which is directly correlated with the strengthening of domestic consumption, despite high import volumes. This scenario, combined with the upward trajectory of the Latin American swine industry, establishes a solid foundation for short and medium-term projections for pork production.
According to our econometric models for the end of 2026, production outlooks for the region’s major markets remain very positive, with aggregate volume for Latin America projected at 9.85 Mt. The key indicators and factors by country are detailed below:
Figure 3. 333 Latam projections for pork production in 2026 in the major Latin American countries and the regional total. Figures are in tons and show estimated percentage growth compared to 2025.
Prepared by 333 Latin America using proprietary data.
Brazil will continue to consolidate its position as a global production and export powerhouse, reaching an estimated production of 5.7 Mt. The South American giant is expected to strengthen its presence in strategic markets in Southeast Asia, which would allow it to offset the projected decline in demand from China. Production would be supported by key competitive advantages, such as excellent corn and soybean harvests, forecasted for the coming season. This would not only keep production costs stable but also ensure favorable margins for producers.
Mexico: Domestic demand is expected to remain the sector’s main driver, boosting both domestic production (projected at 2.0 Mt) and imports. However, imports could face a “slowdown” due to recent changes in trade policy, notably the tariff-free import quotas for Brazil and the imposition of tariffs on countries without free trade agreements (FTAs). Added to this are anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations against imports of legs and shoulders from the United States. This situation could encourage an import substitution effect and provide an additional boost to the domestic industry, despite sanitary pressure from endemic diseases such as PRRS.
Argentina: Government measures targeting the macroeconomic environment and international trade are expected to continue having a positive impact, with production projected at 876,000 tons. Pork's high competitiveness against beef and poultry (both in terms of price and consumer preference) suggests that import volumes could increase to meet growing demand. Likewise, following the attainment of new sanitary approvals in 2025, a recovery in export volume is projected in 2026.
Colombia: The sector is expected to maintain moderate growth, with production reaching 686,000 tons. However, attention is focused on the current situation regarding prices paid to producers, which is putting considerable pressure on their profit margins and could destabilize the market.
Chile: The outlook points to stable production levels, at 600,000 tons. It is estimated that about 40% of production will be destined for the international market, while imports will continue to rise to bridge the gap in domestic demand and thus ensure the local market's supply.
The complex geopolitical landscape and its supply risks
While the outlook and projections presented above point to a positive future for the region, an escalation and prolongation of the conflict between the United States and Iran in 2026 could trigger a critical supply shock for Latin American pork production, driven by volatility in energy prices and rising input costs. In fact, rising oil and natural gas prices are directly proportional to the cost of nitrogen fertilizers and transportation in general, which would put upward pressure on the price of corn and soybeans despite an abundant global supply. This logistical disruption would be exacerbated by instability in key maritime trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, which would ultimately lead to a decline in the sector’s profitability and, consequently, a significant reduction in regional producers’ profit margins.
Furthermore, at the macroeconomic level, the global uncertainty caused by the war strengthens the dollar as a safe-haven asset, leading to the devaluation of local currencies and making it more expensive to import key resources for the sector, such as genetic material, nutritional supplements, and technology, along with many others. Similarly, inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict would force central banks to keep interest rates high, which would limit access to credit and slow down investment projects, such as those in infrastructure or the expansion of the pig herd. This combination of factors creates a very difficult scenario for the sector, one that demands optimal technical and financial management to maintain competitiveness in times of crisis.
Conclusion
The 2025 review confirms that Latin American pork production is undergoing a period of structural expansion, driven by robust production, a greater share of the international market, and steadily growing domestic consumption. This momentum has enabled the region to efficiently absorb larger volumes of pork (both domestically produced and imported), thereby gaining a greater share of the animal protein market, while supplying a quality product to demanding markets such as Southeast Asia.
However, although the trend suggests that this growth trajectory will continue through 2026, the industry once again faces a challenging external environment. While the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran introduces critical volatility in energy and resource costs that could, directly or indirectly, increase the cost of regional operations, the latent threat of African swine fever (ASF) entering Latin America and the pressure from endemic diseases such as PRRS could also limit the sector’s expansion potential.
In this context, the industry’s success this year will depend on its ability to manage these external shocks. As such, the sector’s stability will hinge on rigorous financial management, the pursuit of optimal on-farm efficiency, and the strict implementation of biosecurity measures—all of which are essential for mitigating pressure on profit margins and maintaining competitiveness in a global environment marked by uncertainty.
