European Union - Update of scenario study on agriculture and the rural world
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The objective of the Scenar 2020-II study was to refine and improve the identification of major future trends and driving factors – and the perspectives and challenges resulting from them – provided by the initial Scenar 2020 study (December 2006) on the future of European agriculture and the rural world.
The first is a 'Reference' scenario, in which reference policy decisions are carried forward in the time period of the study. The second is called 'Conservative CAP' scenario, and keeps the overall level of the budget devoted to agriculture but changes the balance between pillars. The third is a 'Liberalisation' scenario, in which all agricultural trade-related measures are discontinued.
In the case of livestock production, the impact of different market conditions is far more contrasted, and severe, than for arable production. Pork and poultry production in the EU resists the international competition in more open markets better than beef, in spite of the fact that under a Liberalisation scenario, the consumption per capita of beef relative to pork and poultry might be expected to increase because of a lower price for beef (indeed, it would drop in a liberalised trade context). The dairy market is more complex, as what distinguishes the milk market from meat sales is the possible transformation of milk into other products: butter, cheese and milk powder. Here the market penetration in a global context reflects certain competitive advantages for the EU with regard to cheese, even under a fully liberalised market.
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